Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Over-Under Pick: Under 6.5 runs -110 odds (May 27th 2015)
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Your free play for Wednesday, May 27, 2015 is in the MLB scheduled contest between the Atlanta Braves and the LA Dodgers. The Dodgers had a serious lack of production and power as they headed into their last series with the Padres. After having gotten shut out in three straight by the Giants, the Padres held the Dodgers to just seven total runs over three games. Monday finally saw the bats come back alive with three eighth inning home runs to beat the Braves, 6-3. Still, the lack of production has to be of concern to the club with all the talented hitters on this club. The Braves hope that Alex Wood can continue his decent pitching. Wood is 2-2 on the season with a 3.83 ERA. He’s coming off a seven inning, one run performance against Miami. Problem here is, the Braves will face the Dodgers best pitcher this season in Zack Greinke. Greinke has been amazing with a 5-1 record and 1.48 ERA. Greinke has allowed just three total runs over his last 28 1/3 innings of work. Greinke has received just three runs of support in his last two starts. Too big a number here to lay with the Dodgers, but I like this one to go Under in a good pitcher’s park like Chavez Ravine. Play the UNDER.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Betting Pick: Philadelphia -135 odds (May 27th 2015)
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The Philadelphia Phillies lost in extra-innings at Citi Field last night, and they will look to avoid a sweep here in the series finale on Wednesday afternoon. Philly is a big dog despite the Mets handing the ball to an unproven rookie, and I’ll take a stab at the visitors on the runline.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching – Sean O’Sullivan will get the start for the Phillies, and he’s been pretty sharp overall this season. O’Sullivan (1-3, 3.54 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on five hits over six innings in a 2-1 loss at Washington his last time out. Prior to that he tossed six scoreless frames in a home win over the Diamondbacks. The Mets counter with 22 year old Noah Syndergaard, who has lost two of his first three major league starts.
2. Chase Utley – The veteran second baseman is swinging a hot bat of late, he’s 4-for-7 with a pair of RBIs in this series so far. His 22 RBIs at Citi Field over the last three seasons are almost double what he has in any other ballpark outside Philly during that span.
3. X-Factor – The Mets have won eight of the last 10 meetings between these two teams, but half of those victories came in one-run ballgames.
Selection: This is a play on the Philadelphia Phillies +1.5. (Free)
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Over-Under Pick: Over 8.5 runs (May 25th 2015)
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The Minnesota Twins return home after winning 4-of-5 on the road, and they’ve been red hot at Target Field, where they have won nine of their last 11. They host the Red Sox today, and it would only be fitting to see fireworks this Memorial Day.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching – Joe Kelly will get the call for Boston, and he’s struggled most of the season. Kelly (1-3, 5.13 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on seven hits over seven innings in a 2-1 loss to Texas his last time out. He’s never faced the Twins. Minnesota will hand the ball to Ricky Nolasco, who hasn’t missed many bats lately. Nolasco (4-1, 6.00 ERA) allowed four runs on 10 hits over 5.2 innings in an 8-5 win over Pittsburgh in his last start. The veteran owns a 9.00 ERA in three starts in day games this year, and he owns some disturbing numbers in day games dating back several seasons.
2. Batter vs Pitcher – Pablo Sandoval is 10-for-21 (.476) with three home runs and seven RBIs lifetime versus Nolasco. Big Papi is 4-for-10 with three homers and five RBIs.
3. X-Factor – The Twins have a history of playing high scoring games at Target Field, with the total going overt at a rate of 34-16-1 in their last 51 home games.
Selection: This is a play on Boston@Minnesota to go OVER the total (Free).
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs
Betting Pick: Cubs -106 odds (May 25th 2015)
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The Cubs host the Nationals in a Memorial Day matinee at Wrigley today, and I like the Cubs with a veteran pitcher facing off against a reliever making a spot start.
Tanner Roark will toe the slab for Washington, coming out of the bullpen to make his first start of the season. The 28 year old was 15-10 with a 2.85 ERA as a starter for Washington last year. He hasn’t had much success against the Cubs, going 0-2 with a 5.52 ERA versus Chicago last year. His day/night splits would also suggest he’s better under the lights.
The Cubs hand the ball to Tsuyoshi Wada, who makes just his second start of the season. The 34 year old veteran allowed a pair of runs on four hits, striking out nine over 4 2/3 innings in a win over the Padres in his 2015 debut last week. He was 4-1 with a 2.98 ERA in eight starts at Wrigley last year.
The Cubs have won six of their last seven in Chicago, and I expect them to take advantage of a favorable situation here at Wrigley today.
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Over-Under Pick: Under 7 runs -110 odds (May 24th 2015)
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James Shields puts his 5-0 record on the line as he takes to the mound for the visiting Padres who have now lost four in a row. Shield sports a 3.74 ERA and possesses the NL record with 75 strikeouts. The right-hander has another record by yielding 14 homeruns, the most of any pitcher in the majors.
The Dodgers have plated only six runs in the their last seven games. Los Angeles counters with Carlos Frias with a 3-1 record and 2.55 ERA. The righty has a 1.56 ERA in his three career home starts.
In San Diego’s games this season the Under is….4-3 after getting shut out….12-11 after a loss….3-3 as a road underdog of +125 to +150.
In Los Angeles Dodger’s games this season the Under is….4-2 when playing on Sunday….6-5 in day games….16-15 against division opponents.
The Total has gone Under in 4 of the last 5 contests between the two clubs.
The Under is the Play here.